Friday, 12 February 2010

US negotiator Todd Stern's review of COP15

You can see Todd Stern, the US lead negotiator on climate change, talking about COP15 below.

Sunday, 20 December 2009

Timeline of the drama at COP15

The following is the timeline of events on Friday evening/Saturday morning as the drama unfolded at COP15.

Throughout the day, leaders and their representatives met to try to hammer out a deal on an overarching text to complement the reports from the two negotiating tracks - the Kyoto Protocol track and the Long-term Cooperative Action track. Gradually the text was built up into something worthwhile. What then followed on Friday evening was a roller-coaster of emotions, rumours, contradictory announcements and provocative statements all taking place in the chaotic environment of the Bella Center, nominally under the direction of the Danish PM, Lars Løkke Rasmussen.

We pick up the story at 9.15pm...

2115: Negotiations between the small group of leaders (20+) who are developing the text appears to be in deadlock; bizarre rumour that Premier Wen had apparently not turned up for a bilateral with Obama and when Obama went looking for him, he eventually found him in a room with Lula, Singh and Zuma and asked forcefully "are you ready to see me now?". Merkel apparently blocking the EU move to 30 per cent reductions by 2020 and China pushing back on the draft figure proposing a 50 per cent global reduction in emissions from 1990 levels by 2050. Progress apparently has been made on MRV.

2151: Rumours that an agreement has been reached between 5 of the key leaders (Obama, Wen but not sure who else) but that they are working on the broader 20+ group before taking it to plenary.

2206: Rumours that an agreement has been struck receive a boost when Sarkozy calls a press conference at a nearby hotel; a real scrum when another rumour circulates that Obama is to do a press conference in Conference Room 1 by the main plenary hall (this turns out to be a false alarm).

2211: EU press conference called in the Asger Jorn room. Journalists and delegates alike run to the tightly-packed room;

2221: I leave the press room when it is clear that any media activity is still some time away; I move up to the 'Danish delegation area" where I find a seat in a quite space just outside the main negotiation room with leaders.

2257: Leaders apparently still in the room working with the wider group. Text still not seen outside.

2330: Text out - initial assessment is that is very weak; Obama holds a press conference before travelling to the airport, describing the deal as "meaningful" but still a long way from where we need to be; PM Brown scheduled to talk to UK press in a few minutes

0031: It now transpires that only the small group has agreed the text and that the wider group of 20+ has not. This is despite Obama and Brown having left, claiming agreement; we are in the extraordinary position of leaders claiming agreement before many delegations have even seen the text; could be some time yet.

0057: Surreal moment when I am sitting outside the main negotiation room - Australian PM Rudd appears and sits just two seats away from me making notes ahead of his forthcoming press conference (he talks to himself as he writes!); Indian Minister Ramesh sits just two places the other side of me and looks serene and regal. Deal seems to have been done between the 20+ but the next challenge is to take it into plenary and secure support there; plenary due to start "within an hour"; could be explosive.

0305: Swedish Prime Minister Fredrik Reinfeldt and European Commission President Jose Manuel Barroso confirm they support the text but are clearly underwhelmed by the content at their press conference.

0323: sitting in the plenary with Danish PM Rasmussen chairing; it's all going horribly wrong - many countries objecting (in particular Tuvalu, Venezuela, Nicaragua, Cuba and Bolivia); mood is not positive - many smaller nations seem to be baying for blood, seeing the small elite group as "illegitimate"; Tuvalu says it can't support the agreement as it amounts to selling its country for "30 pieces of silver" and Venezuela claims the COP did not give a mandate for a smaller group of countries to draw up the document; Rasmussen looks exhausted.

0500: after an adjournment, it is still not clear how the session will move forward; Rasmussen appears to be losing the room - a lot of bad feeling about the lack of transparency in the process; everyone is shattered; privately G77 negotiators tell me that the Danish government has done a bad job and haven't learned the lessons of the first week, fuelling mistrust

Not clear whether the agreement announced by Obama and Brown earlier is going to survive; maybe they will just call it an agreement between themselves rather than a COP agreement;

0730: still ongoing and still unclear as to closure; no direction to discussions and the plenary has descended into a series of monologues

0919: meeting adjourned after a critical intervention by UK climate minister, Ed Miliband. To add to the moment, his microphone doesn't work and he ends up sitting in the US seat to speak - he says the process is in a crisis and that there are 'two roads' delegates can take - one that respects the work leaders have done and operationalises the finance agreed in the document, making better the lives of millions, or one that the Sudanese rep (G77 lead) proposes that would wreck the process and deprive millions of a better life; Miliband receives a standing ovation from around half of the delegates; after a few more interventions, Rasmussen looks as if he is about to jack it all in but Miliband steps in again with a point of order suggesting an adjournment and a possible way forward; Miliband then consults with key colleagues (Todd Stern from the US, South Africa, Costa Rica etc) and rumours abound that Rasmussen will be replaced as Chair; chaotic scenes on the front stage with Ban Ki Moon, Yvo de Boer and others in a huddle;

1030; plenary resumes with new chair - from the Bahamas; proposes that the COP "notes" the leaders' paper and that countries who support it make themselves known to the UNFCCC; bangs the gavel and moves on to next item on the agenda. Achieves in 30 second what Rasmussen failed to achieve all night; Ed Miliband receives plaudits from the Danes, US and many others as he leaves for the airport.

And so, at last, we know the outcome from COP15: the reports from the Chairs of the Working Groups on the Kyoto Protocol and the Long-term Cooperative Action and the "Copenhagen Accord". I am sure Mexico is relishing the thought of COP16..!

Photos: A tired-looking Lars Løkke Rasmussen chairs the final plenary to try to secure broader agreement on the text agreed by 20+ leaders; UK Prime Minister Gordon Brown speaking to the press around midnight before leaving for the airport; Indian Environment Minister, Ramesh, looking serene and regal after the negotiations; Australian PM Kevin Rudd preparing his speaking note for the press conference (with one of his advisers literally looking like a zombie); the room where the 20+ leaders met, including Obama, shortly after the agreement was reached; and Ed Miliband and Todd Stern lead a huddle during an adjournment to devise a strategy for passing the agreement in the plenary; Ed Miliband speaks from the US delegation seat as his microphone fails; and finally, an exhausted Lars Løkke just before he was replaced as Chair...









COP15 - the "Copenhagen Accord"

Drama on the last night of COP15. The leaders came, including President Obama and Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao. A representative group drafted some text and the COP President, Danish PM Lars Løkke Rasmussen, presented this "Copenhagen Accord" to the plenary. This would be the outcome of COP15, together with the texts from the Working Groups on the Kyoto Protocol and Long Term Cooperative Action. A combination of procedural objections and poor chairing meant that the plenary went on all through Friday night and Saturday morning. Just when it seemed that nothing would be agreed, a stirring performance by UK Climate Minister, Ed Miliband, with the support of allies, allowed an adjournment to be made and a compromise to be reached. It's a weak text and its status is unclear but, in the context of the negotiations last night, this in itself was a huge achievement.

You can see the full text of the Copenhagen Accord here.

Thursday, 17 December 2009

Leadership..

One disillusioned soul managed to defy the UN security guards to write this on the door to the US delegation office..

24 hours

And so we enter the final 24 hours of the climate change negotiations in Copenhagen. Over 110 leaders are here together with a whole host of big names from politics, media with the odd celebrity thrown in. Not for many years have so many decision-makers been present at the same location. The question is - can they make a decision by Friday night?

The negotiations were back on track today and made further progress in private meetings and working groups as the leaders, in parallel, all took turns to say their piece in the plenary.

Perhaps the highlight of the day, at least in media terms, was the appearance of US Secretary of State, Hillary Clinton. She made an announcement that, in the context of a global agreement involving all major economies, the US would support the aim of providing USD 100 billion per year by 2020 for developing countries. This is in line with the sort of funding (both scale and timing) first outlined by UK PM Gordon Brown earlier this year. Whilst it was a welcome signal of intent, there was no actual money attached or a suggestion of how the US's share would be calculated. Needless to say the G77 group of developing countries did not react with unbounded enthusiasm (their view is that around USD 400 billion is needed each year).

Hillary's other major intervention today was on MRV (monitoring, reporting and verification). This is a big one. The US is insisting on transparency and some sort of independent verification of national actions, including those in developing countries. The G77's view is that they are happy to provide very detailed monitoring, reporting and verification about actions that are paid for by the developed countries but for voluntary national actions (ie thos that are not supported by developed countries), there should be no such international monitoring system. This is seen as a potential deal-breaker for the US but, in reality, I don't think the two sides are far apart. China and others are already talking about more frequent 'national communications' (information reports provided to the UN about progress) and better reporting of economic and emissions data. And of course it is very unlikely that the US itself would accept international monitoring and verification of its national actions. I expect this one to be settled relatively easily.

The debate on the overall temperature target that the international community should aim at continues, with around 100 countries supporting the 1.5 degrees C target, but most major countries supporting the 2 degrees C target. How will this be resolved? I expect some sort of fudge that keeps both options on the table and that calls for the target to be reviewed regularly based on the latest science. I don't see this as a deal-breaker.

Other big issues still to be resolved include emissions cuts and the legal form of the agreement.

Precise numbers for emissions cuts are still controversial and developed countries are still falling short in terms of the emissions cuts they are prepared to take on. The current aggregate of 18 per cent below 1990 levels by 2020 is short of the 25-40 per cent target suggested by the IPCC under a 450ppm scenario (which only provides a 40-60 per cent chance of keeping global average temperature rise below 2 degrees C - scary that we can't even get to that - I would want much more than a 50 per cent chance of success if I was in charge!). This lack of ambition is a major problem and developing countries are very worried. Their view is that, even if the necessary funding is forthcoming from developed countries, the fact that the rich countries are not prepared to make the necessary cuts in emissions is a deal breaker. And, of course, less ambitious cuts means a greater temperature increase which means more severe impacts (particularly in developing countries), which means the cost of adapting to these impacts increases. So if the money isn't there and the targets aren't there, the developing countries will feel very let down. I expect this one to be the real sticking point but, ultimately, what can the developing countries do? They have no bargaining chips to force greater ambition from the developed countries except perhaps a public backlash in developed countries if no deal is forthcoming.

Finally, on the legal form of an agreement, it is clear that the Kyoto Protocol will very likely remain. It has immense support from the developing countries as the only legally-binding agreement to reduce emissions. So there is likely to be a Kyoto Protocol text that breathes new life into the KP when its first commitment period expires in 2012. The question is, what will emerge from the broader Convention track of the negotiations? Clearly there must be an instrument that creates comparable commitments from the US and other non-Kyoto parties, provides a mechanism for raising the funding necessary and 'internationalises' the mitigation actions of developing countries.

So, in short, I expect there to be two texts - the KP and the Convention texts - plus an overarching political communique that acts as the 'umbrella' for the parallel instruments. Within this there is likely to be a commitment to 'fast-start' finance between now and 2012 and an indication of the level of ambition both in terms of the overall goal and in terms of the scale of finance over the longer-term.

Of course, in 24 hours it should all be clear... (ish).

GLOBE International Leadership Award

This morning, UK Prime Minister Gordon Brown presented the GLOBE International Award for International Leadership on the Environment to Mexican President Felipe Calderon on behalf of the 120 legislators from the major economies who participated in the GLOBE International Legislators' Forum in Copenhagen on 24-25 October.

The Criteria for the award includes:
o Demonstration of a long-standing commitment to the environment
o Demonstration of international leadership
o Through personal commitment, delivery of tangible results in the advancement of environmental issues on the international stage

The inaugural presentation took place in Berlin in 2007 where the award was presented to then UK Prime Minister Tony Blair in recognition of his decision to put climate change on the agenda for the UK’s G8 Summit in 2005

The 2008 award was presented to former Japanese Prime Minister, Shinzo Abe, in recognition of his 2007 “Cool Earth 50” initiative.

This year, over 120 legislators from the 16 major economies of Brazil, Canada, China, Denmark, France, Germany, India, Italy, Japan, Korea, Mexico, Russia, South Africa, the UK and the US, met at the GLOBE Copenhagen forum in the Danish parliament on 24-25 October.

At that event, legislators unanimously endorsed the nomination of the 2009 award winner.

To view the full event, click here.




Wednesday, 16 December 2009

COP15 - 3 days to go

Tuesday was a much better day (starting from Monday's low baseline meant that almost any progress would be an improvement).

After the 7-hour boycott by African nations on Monday, negotiations have been split into parallel working groups on the key issues, each co-chaired by a developed and a developing country, to try to make faster progress. UK Secretary of State Ed Miliband is co-chairing the working group on finance with Ghana. Progress is being made.

In the afternoon I bumped into one of the Chinese negotiators who felt a sense of frustration that, although the talks were now moving forward, progress was too slow and that leaders would be left with too much to do in the closing 24 hours. I asked him what he thought we would get on the final day... He said he expected agreement to continue the Kyoto Protocol and agreement that to a new parallel instrument that would enshrine comparable US commitments (as the US is not part of the Kyoto Protocol) and formalise the actions of developing countries. He hoped that there would be a 6-month deadline to transform the political agreement likely in Copenhagen into a legally binding treaty.

Frustratingly I have been focusing the majority of my time in ensuring our Members of Parliament get access to the conference center. Over 40,000 people have been accredited for a building that holds 15,000. MPs are considered 'observers' in the same way as NGOs, business reps and other civil society groups. Access for 'observers' has been heavily restricted (we were given 22 passes for 110 MPs). Thursday and Friday will see even greater restrictions as the number of 'observers' will be restricted to 1,000 in total on Thursday (there are 890+ observer organisations, so this means around 1 per organisation) and, on Friday, just 90 observers in total (about 1 person per 10 organisations) will be allowed in. Oh the joy...